Dr Michael Byrne, a lecturer in earth surface processes at the college of St Andrews and also a Marie Skłodowska-Curie research fellow in the Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics group at the college of Oxford

Last year, global temperatures were 0.95C warmer than the 20th century average. Human task is responsible for approximately 100% of this warming.

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Delving a tiny deeper right into these numbers shows that the earth land areas were 1.43C warmer than average, when the oceans were 0.77C warmer. This is proof of how the world’s continents have warmed more rapidly than its seas over current decades.

This contrast between land and ocean temperature change will strongly shape the global pattern of future warming and has vital implications because that humans. We are, after all, a varieties that much prefers to live ~ above land.

But what drives this warming contrast? the a deceptively an easy question, however one v a much-misunderstood answer. In this guest post, I synopsis a robust, quantitative theory for the land-ocean warming comparison that has actually only been arisen in current years.

Heat capacity

Simple physics says that once you put more heat right into the climate system, land must warm an ext quickly 보다 oceans. This is due to the fact that land has actually a smaller “heat capacity” than water, which way it requirements less warm to progressive its temperature.

The chart below shows just how the earth’s land surface (yellow line) has actually warmed an ext rapidly than the ocean (dark blue) end the observational record.

Amplified warming end land apparent in surface temperature documents from NOAA. Chart shows annual average temperatures because that land (yellow line), ocean (dark blue) and land and also ocean combined (light blue). All numbers relative to 1901-2000. Data native NOAA; graph by Carbon quick using Highcharts.

This effect can likewise be viewed in various parts the the seasonal climate system. Because that example, together the sunlight moves phibìc of the equator throughout the north hemisphere spring, its power rapidly heats India family member to bordering oceans. This comparison in heater plays a key role in the reversal of winds that drives the southern Asia monsoon.

Land’s small heat capacity additionally helps to define why some continental regions, such together Russia and also the central US, deserve to get really hot in summer yet bitterly cold in winter. This is known as “continentality”.

Given its main role in the seasonal land-ocean warming contrast, warmth capacity is the natural starting point once attempting to describe why continents warm an ext than seas under climate change. However there is a difficulty with this explanation.

Warming contrast

In a landmark 1991 paper, meteorologist Syukuro Manabe and his colleagues used an early climate model to compare the transient an answer of the climate system to gradual increases in CO2 to the permanent equilibrium response.

In various other words, they to be comparing the climate while CO2 was boosting with the climate when CO2 had stopped rising and also the climate had at some point stabilised in ~ its new, warmer state.

If the distinction in warmth capacities between land and also oceans to be the decisive factor controlling the warming contrast, we would suppose the contrast to disappear in ~ equilibrium when the oceans have had enough time to heat up.

But this is no what Manabe found. Instead, he uncovered that the proportion of soil to ocean warming (now well-known as the “amplification factor”) was similar in both the transient and also equilibrium experiments.

This was proof that the land-ocean warming comparison – highlighted in the map listed below of projected warming because that the end of this century – is a an essential response come climate adjust that is not regulated by warm capacity. If heat capacity can not explain intensified land warming in a transforming climate, what can?


Climate design projection the the readjust in near-surface temperature by the end of the 21st century (2080-2100) relative to the historical period (1980-2000). Data indigenous the GFDL-CM4 model under the fossil-fueled, high emissions SSP58.5 scenario; graph by M Byrne.

Beyond warm capacity

The very first explanation, at first put front by Manabe, invokes the surface power balance. This explains the exchange of energy between the earth surface and the atmosphere above it.

When atmospheric CO2 concentration increase, radiation right into Earth’s surface increases causing temperatures to rise. This is because a larger amount that the warm radiated by the Earth’s surface is being trapped by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

But the degree of this CO2-induced surface warming depends on just how much is balanced by localised determinants that reason cooling – namely, cooling caused by evaporation and also cooling because of the exchange of dried heat in between the floor surface and the air over it. (The atmospheric warming brought about by the latter also tends come inhibit cloud development and, thus, can cause further dry of the soil surface.)

Oceans – which have unlimited water to evaporate – can effectively cool themselves in a warming climate by evaporating more and much more water with only a little temperature increase. Continents, ~ above the other hand, frequently have limited moisture accessibility and so evaporation is constrained.

This way that, over continents, much more of the extra radiation going into the surface in a warming climate demands to it is in dissipated with the exchange of dried heat and also longwave radiative cooling, rather than evapotranspiration. This suggests a larger boost in surface ar temperature contrasted to the freely evaporating oceans.

This “surface power balance” concept for the land-ocean warming comparison has additionally been put forward in more recent studies.

This explanation for amplified continental warming is intuitive and also hints in ~ a key role because that land “dryness” in identify the temperature change. Yet it demands to be sustained by tough numbers.

An problem with the surface power balance theory is that it depends on properties of the land surface ar – which are varied, complex and notoriously complicated to simulate – in bespeak to it is in accurately stood for in climate models. In particular, quantifying exactly how evapotranspiration will respond come a an altering climate – the vital ingredient of the surface power balance concept – requires expertise of regional soil moisture and vegetation and how this properties themselves readjust with climate. A an overwhelming task.

Moreover, determinants in the overlying environment are likewise important: how will rainfall and also winds change? The myriad processes affecting land surface energy balance average that using this framework as a basis because that a quantitative theory for the land-ocean warming contrast is challenging. Return the view is conceptually useful, it offers an incomplete understanding of the physics control the warming contrast.

A brand-new idea

Rather than surface power balance, atmospheric dynamics – the activity of the atmosphere and also its thermodynamic state – underpin a brand-new understanding that the land-ocean warming comparison that has occurred over the last decade.

In a 2008 paper, Prof Manoj Joshi – climate at the Met Office Hadley Centre and the college of Reading and now in ~ the university of east Anglia – was the very first to point out the dynamical procedures in the atmosphere attach temperature and also humidity over land and also ocean regions.

Specifically, he proved that the lapse rate – the price of to decrease of temperature with height – decreases more strongly over ocean than over land as climate warms. This is due to the fact that the air over the s is, at any type of moment in time, generally holding much more water vapour than the air end land.

These contrasting lapse rate changes explain the warming contrast: a weaker decrease in floor lapse rate indicates a larger increase in land surface temperature relative to the ocean.

This system is not necessarily intuitive, yet relies ~ above well-established processes in atmospheric dynamics. Differing lapse rate changes are now embraced as the basic driver the the land-ocean warming contrast, an especially at low latitudes (up to approximately 40N and 40S). Intensified warming in regions including the Mediterranean are additionally explained through the same lapse-rate mechanism.

A quantitative theory

With his 2008 paper, Joshi presented a new theoretical understanding because that the land-ocean warming contrast. But, again, the explanation was qualitative.

Together through Prof Paul O’Gorman from the Massachusetts academy of Technology, i realised the the lapse rate argument could be extended and developed into a quantitative theory.

The vital insight was the although changes in temperature and humidity over land and also ocean are an extremely different, the atmospheric dynamics constraints established by Joshi imply that transforms in a particular mix of temperature and also humidity – special, the energy had in a package of air in ~ rest, a quantity known as moist static power – are roughly equal. This insight allowed us to have an equation for the soil temperature change, i m sorry we released in 2018.

What our equation reflects is that the an answer of floor temperature to climate change depends on two factors: ocean warming and also how dried the land is in today’s climate.

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The drier the land is, the more it warms. The theory has been confirmed in climate models and also using observational data over the previous 40 years. The theory describes why soil warming is meant to be specifically severe in dry, arid subtropical regions and additionally explains why loved one humidity end land has actually been diminish over current decades.